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The World at War January-June 1, 2006: Ongoing Major Conflicts

“We will not defeat terrorists solely through the use of force. We must assist others to create good governance and the rule of law.”
~General Peter Pace, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
“Chairman’s Guidance,” October 1, 2005

The following chart lists this year’s snapshot of the 15 significant armed conflicts, after which – as in the 2005 report – the text begin with Afghanistan and Iraq.

* Causes are simplifications and should not be regarded as the full explanation for what is often a very complex set of circumstances.

Afghanistan

As it had in 2004, Afghanistan continued to show uneven improvement in security and governance in 2005. In February 2005 the U.S. and NATO agreed to combine the counterterrorism and peacekeeping/peace building missions. NATO, which already had five provincial reconstruction teams (PRT) working in Afghanistan, added five more, over the course of 2005 and took over two (of 13) U.S. PRTs. But the more seismic shift in the security situation came in early May, 2006, when, under British command, NATO forces moved into four of the most volatile provinces: Helmund, Kandahar, Zabul, and Uruzgan, all in the south where the Taliban originated. To meet this expanded mission, NATO added approximately 7,000 to the 9,000 troops that comprised the International Security Assistance Force in and around Kabul. The U.S.-led multinational counterterrorism effort will still involve another 16,000 troops even with the expected withdrawal of 2,500 U.S. soldiers.

However, the Taliban and the remnants of al-Qaeda have not been intimidated by NATO any more than they were by the U.S. Armed attacks, especially in the south an along the border with Pakistan, continued and even increased late in 2005 and into 2006. Ominously, the new year saw growing use of car bombs and suicide bombers against both soldiers and civilians. Some intelligence reports cite increases in the fighting strength of the Taliban and increased intimidation of rural villagers – armed incursions, destruction of schools and health clinics, and assassinations of government officials. In fact, with 1,600 civilian deaths attributed to terrorist incidents, 2005 was the most lethal year since the Taliban lost political power at the end of 2001. U.S. fatalities in 2005 came to 99 with another 36 recorded through mid-May of 2006. Since October 2001, when Operation Enduring Freedom commenced, 295 U.S. military personnel have died in Afghanistan; coalition dead total 78.

With respect to governance, the September parliamentary and provincial elections were hailed as a great success. The parliament convened in December 2005. In late January, another donors’ conference convened, this time in London. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, noting that the U.S. had already poured more than $10.3 billion into reconstruction in Afghanistan, said that President Bush’s Fiscal Year 2007 budget would ask Congress for $1.1 billion more. In all, the London conference elicited new commitments of $10.5 billion by the 70 countries in attendance. In return, Kabul presented a five-year “Compact” of domestic reform and development whose main orientation is improving the quality of life of ordinary Iraqis rather than devoting energy toward institution building. One significant challenge to any government plan is weaning Afghan farmers away from opium production.

Iraq

Once again, the battlefield numbers tell most of the story: U.S. dead through the first half of May equal 2,448. After a March in which only 31 U.S. military personnel died, April spiked to 76 and by mid-May that month’s count had reached 44. British losses stood at 111 (seven just in May) and other coalition fatalities also stood at 111. Iraqi security personnel – police and military – losses in 2006 through mid-May were 817. At the current rate of losses, Iraqi losses among security forces will be about 2,200-2,300, about two-thirds of the fatalities during 2005. That assumes, of course, that the anticipated Iraqi cabinet of newly elected Prime Minister Maliki succeeds in stabilizing the political scene – which may be difficult as long as Maliki holds the Defense and Interior portfolios

With the series of elections and the constitutional referendum in 2005, Washington had hoped to make 2006 a real transition year, to include withdrawing a significant number of U.S. and other coalition troops. Instead, the field commanders are finding they have to send U.S. patrols back into areas “turned over” to Iraqis because of sectarian violence. In 2006, through mid-May, recorded civilian fatalities stand at 3,424. Death squads, some connected to police and some to militias, are killing more than al-Qaeda-in-Iraq.

Middle East

Abu Abbas as President of the Palestinian Authority may be committed to negotiation, but other actor keep the violence going. The more radical Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad remain unwilling to negotiate with a government they regard as illegitimate. The West, which views Hamas as a terrorist organization, cut all financial support to the PA when Hamas took control of the PA cabinet, warning that it would not re-engage until Hamas renounces its call for the destruction of Israel, renounces the use of violence, and brings the other guerrilla organizations to the “negotiating” table. Israel for its part not only is withholding the $55 million per month (on average) in customs and other taxes it collects “on behalf of” the PA, it also has been able to block money transfers from oil-producing Arab states to the new Hamas-dominated cabinet. And despite continued construction of the barrier fence, suicide bombers still get through to Israeli cities – and their carnage merely triggers reprisal raids and the inevitable deaths of by-standers.

The Americas – Colombia

Although the AUC formally disbanded, Colombia remains locked in struggles with the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Although heavily beset by government offensives over the last two years, both groups remain intact. The smaller ELN (3,000-5,000 fighters) finances both its military operations and its ideological “social justice” work through kidnapping-ransom activities more so than through drug trafficking. The larger (16,000 fighters) FARC relies more heavily on revenue from direct dealings in drugs and alliances with drug lords. Some analysts believe that the drug trade has diluted the FARC’s political vision, rendering it little more than a narco-trrorist organization. That certainly is the U.S. perception; both FARC and ELN are on Washington’s list of terrorist organizations.

Preparing for Haiti’s February 2006 presidential election was a major effort of a special electoral commission of the Organization of American States (OAS) in conjunction with the UN. The presence of a Brazilian-led UN peacekeeping mission of 7,500 troops and 2,000 international police dampened violence, but even this force could not prevent hunger strikes by a former prime minister that roiled segments of the population and the kidnapping of election workers conducting voter registration. Former president (1996-2001) Rene Preval was the winner of the contested election, inheriting what one analyst termed a perpetual failed state. Recognizing that peace is essential for Haiti to make any progress, in March Preval asked for and received assurances from Brazil that its peacekeeping troops would not be withdrawn until Haiti stabilizes further. No party has a majority in Haiti’s new parliament, which met for the first time on May 9th, 2006. Preval himself was installed as president on May 14th, ending a hiatus in permanent governance that began in February 2004 when Jean Bertrand Aristide was forced from office. Given Haiti’s history, a major goal for Preval, elected for a five-year term, and for parliament, elected for a four-year term, is simply to last through their terms in office without a coup d’etat.

Europe – Chechnya

The seven year brutal war continues, albeit well below the radar of most media. It is probably best classified as a reciprocal bout of shootings between or among the now much-reduced Russian army, “indigenous” security services, and the remnants of the rebels. The rough estimate of those killed lies somewhere between 300,000-400,000. The capital city of Grozny, once home to a million people, may have up to 400,000 inhabitants today. Human rights violations perpetrated by the Russian army, Chechen security services, and the remaining rebel groups are a constant of life in Chechnya.

As poor as the state of governance has been, the bottom almost dropped out in April 2006 when a brief but intense gun battle occurred between security personnel of rival “political party” factions headed by Ramzad Kadyrov (prime minister) and Alu Alkhanov (president). Kadyrov, who heads a private army that he uses, with Moscow’s approval, to terrorize Chechens, is in line to become president in October 2006.

Chechnya did break the western media’s radars May 15th. A Russian judge ruled that the sole survivor of the rebels that attacked the school in Beslan in 2004 was guilty of terrorism, among other crimes, and responsible for the 330 deaths that resulted when the Russian anti-terrorist unit on the scene botched their attack to end the siege..

Asia

Nepal descended into absolute chaos in February when King Gyanendra dismissed the cabinet and began ruling by royal decrees – the first of which was a state of emergency declaration. Wide-spread arrests were reported, including journalists and human rights activists. Leaders of the various political parties were under house arrest. Another 750 were arrested when the army broke up a street demonstration in March.

For their part, the Nepalese Maoists, who have been fighting to abolish the monarchy and install a peoples’ republic, voiced the view that their day had come. Western countries brought diplomatic and economic pressures to bear and Nepal’s chief sources of military equipment and services – the U.S., UK, and India – suspended all transfers. U.S. military education and training money continues to flow, but this typical hovers around $500,000.

In late 2005, the seven legal political parties formed a new alliance with the Maoists and proposed a 12-point program for restoring democracy. The king refused to consider it. Protest demonstrations were organized, gradually multiplying in frequency, size, and intensity of emotion. The police and army broke up some, injuring and killing demonstrators. Surprisingly, the number of fatalities was relatively light. Finally, in March, the king capitulated, and a new cabinet was installed. The Maoists agreed to negotiate with the new government about their vision of Nepal’s future. Some ministers have called for new parliamentary elections and a constituent assembly to write a new constitution. Should the latter convene, the king’s powers undoubtedly will be greatly circumscribed – and that assumes the monarchy is not abolished altogether.

In India, the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) finally began peace discussions with New Delhi in October 2005. By January 2006 the talks had hit a dead end – emphasized by a grenade attack against an oil facility. ULFA and three other northeast India insurgent groups with roots in Bengal and Manipur warned people to avoid celebration’s for Independence Day, but most ignored the warnings.

Manipur state is more convoluted than a year ago. Sixteen different insurgent groups – at least – are active; three of the largest have joined together to form the umbrella organization Manipur People’s Liberation Front (MPLF). Competitors include the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) and the Zomi Revolutionary Front and Army.

But it is in Andhra Pradesh and Nagaland where the Communist Party of India – Maoists (CPI-Maoist) is creating what appears to be a power base. In April 2005, after ten months of a very shaky ceasefire, the extremists formally declared the talks over. By that time, 116 fatalities associated with insurgent violence had been reported compared to 88 for all of 2004. (The final toll for 2005 was 669.) In fact, the extremists, known as “Naxalites” because their origins lie in the town of Naxalbari, appear to have used the ceasefire period to rest, recruit, and rearm. New Delhi estimates their fighting strength at 10,000. With a presence in nearly half of India’s 28 states, the government considers the Maoists the chief internal security threat both directly and – as wealthy landowners create militias to protect their holdings – indirectly. For unless security stabilizes, a scenario similar to Colombia‘s conceivably could develop.

Still in Asia, the Philippines government continues to launch occasional operations in Basilan and Jolo against remnants of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Abu Sayyaf group, whose hard core fighters are estimated to number no more than 500. The most noteworthy incident in 2005 involving these militants occurred in February when three imprisoned leaders of the group were killed in an attempted prison escape. Then, in late April and early May, two other significant Abu Sayyaf members were caught in the Southern islands, further weakening what has become little more than a gang of extortionists.

Africa

War on this continent seems eternal as countries bounce from one insurgency to dictatorship to genocidal attacks and back to a new insurgency. But in February 2005, ministers from 11 nations centered on Burundi, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo and Africa’s Great Lakes met under the auspices of the UN and African Union (AU) to hammer out a regional approach to the challenge of constant warfare. The initiative led to the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) which convenes ministerial-level meetings on subjects ranging well beyond traditional security. The eleven core nations signed a mutual security pact in November and have taken steps to control the flow of small arms and light weapons into the region.

Meanwhile, the killing continues. In Sudan, the 20-year North-South civil war formally ended in early 2005. Rebel leader John Garang became a vice-president of the reformed government in Khartoum, only to die less than a month later in a helicopter accident. But as this conflict ended, the genocide in Darfur intensified. Estimates of the dead ranged as high as 200,000 with another two million in refugee camps along the border with Chad or internally displaced. Under heavy pressure from the international community, Khartoum reached a tentative ceasefire in May 2006 with the main insurgent group operating in Darfur, but two splinter groups refused to sign. Ominously, in early 2006, Chad accused Khartoum of trying to destabilize the border and backing opponents of Chad’s president, Idriss Deby. Nonetheless, the UN is preparing to send a second peacekeeping mission to Sudan to augment the 7,000 overstretched AU monitors currently in Darfur. This new mission will be distinct from the mission monitoring implementation of the North-South accord.

Moving south, Uganda still is trying to eliminate the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) led by Joseph Kony. The LRA’s main tactic involves kidnapping children and forcing them to fight and kill civilians, frequently neighbors and even family members. Some 1.5 million people live in refugee camps because the government of Yoweri Museveni cannot guarantee their safety. Museveni has given Kony until the end of June to surrender, promising Kony immunity from trial. However, that promise runs against pending indictments before the International Criminal Court for war crimes.

LRA elements have now been found in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), adding another insurgent presence to an already volatile mixture in that country’s northeast. Rebel bands, including Hutus complicit in the Rwanda genocide in 1996, battle Congolese troops while ethnic-based militias conduct raids and reprisal raids against each other. The continuing violence has created an internally displaced population within the DRC of an estimated 1.7 million people, including 20,000 displaced by fighting in Kivu during February 2006. UN peacekeepers numbering 17,000 troops backed by French soldiers have battled tribal militias as well as other armed groups as the Kinshasa government prepares for national elections now set for the end of July. These forces will be further augmented for the election period by nearly 1,200 additional troops from 16 countries – including 780 from Germany.

Somalia, which has been without an effective central government since 1991, experienced fresh waves of violence in April and May 2006. News media described pitched battles in various parts of Mogadishu between what were termed Islamic radicals and secular warlords. Well over 250 people have been killed in the last few weeks. Accusations of U.S. support for the warlords have been leveled by the interim Somali “government-in-exile” based in neighboring Kenya. Washington has denied involvement, although clearly the White House and the Pentagon regard Somalia as a prime “safe haven” for al-Qaeda and other terror organizations.

Finally, religious-based communal violence in Nigeria continued to flare, primarily in the country’s Islamic north. In February 2006, more than 100 people were killed in a single rampage. Sectarian violence is punctuated by pipeline explosions such as the May 2006 rupture that killed 200 poor Nigerians trying to collect the spilled oil. Groups such as the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta continue to kidnap oil workers in an attempt to extract concessions from the government on distributing oil revenues. The political situation became murky in May when the Nigerian senate turned back a bid by President Olusegun Obasanjo to have the constitution amended to allow for a third term.

This analysis was prepared by Col. Dan Smith, U.S. Army (Ret.). Dan, a West Point graduate and Vietnam veteran, is FCNL's Senior Fellow on Military Affairs.

Reviewed: 05/31/2006

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