Odd Man Out in Nuclear Negotiations With Iran?

Think of it as musical chairs. The U.S., eager to prevent another nuclear weapons state from emerging but militarily overstretched in Iraq, has had to tolerate the European Union’s (EU) “diplomatic option” regarding Iran’s potential to become a nuclear weapons state.

Led by the “EU Three” – France, Germany, and Britain – the negotiations grew out of the discovery by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of an 18-year secret effort by Iran to develop nuclear capabilities usable for either electric power generation or nuclear weapons. After a year, the EU had elicited a pledge by Tehran to suspend, not end, work on its uranium enrichment program as long as efforts by the EU Three to develop a package of economic incentives continued.

The EU Three, along with other countries, are quite concerned about the possibility that an Iranian uranium enrichment facility could be used to produce weapons-grade fissile material. But only the U.S. has demanded that the IAEA refer the evidence of past violations to the UN Security Council for possible punitive action - e.g., economic sanctions.

President Bush delivered a more ominous call for action at a meeting of the EU in Brussels in February: “For the sake of peace, the Iranian regime...must not develop nuclear weapons.” And although disavowing as “ridiculous” any talk of attacking Iran, he added: “Having said that, all options are on the table.” Similar phases were used in the autumn of 2002 with regard to Iraq.

It remains feasible for the EU and Iran to strike a deal, especially with a Russian pledge to supply Iran with uranium enriched enough for only power generation and to collect the spent fuel rods. But Tehran has made clear that it will never surrender its right under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) to build and use its own enrichment facilities.

This month’s NPT Review may be decisive for Iran’s –-and the world’s--next steps in the nuclear nonproliferation dance. Only this time, as in musical chairs when two players vie for the last chair, either the EU or the U.S. nonproliferation policy will be left standing--and lose--when the music stops.