North Korea: Regional Nuclear Nexus

The North Korean nuclear crisis has the potential to accelerate militarization and mistrust in Northeast Asia. The manner in which it is resolved will govern the region’s course over the next decade. A peaceful resolution would provide greater opportunity for cooperation within the region. Conversely, military action or a nuclear-armed North Korea would increase the likelihood of full-scale conflict in Northeast Asia.

In 2003, North Korea announced that it would end the “freeze” of its plutonium program. Experts believe it has since reprocessed enough plutonium for up to six nuclear weapons. In February 2005, North Korea declared itself a nuclear weapons state. With these two “red-lines” crossed, many fear that North Korea could cross a third: testing a nuclear weapon. A test would almost certainly provoke some in Japan to call for their own nuclear weapons, a scenario that would heighten tensions with China and further threaten the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

A Regional Tinderbox

Attempts to advance negotiations concerning North Korea’s nuclear program are taking place in a regional tinder box. China’s military modernization threatens to alter the balance of power in the region, and its recently passed “anti-secession law” declares China’s “right” to use force to prevent Taiwan’s independence. Taipei is nearing approval of a $15 billion to $18 billion arms package, supplied by the U.S.

If North Korea maintains its nuclear weapons program or tests a nuclear weapon, Japan may respond in kind--dangerously fueling regional tensions. Since a 1998 North Korean missile test, Japan has taken steps to abandon its “peace constitution,” which permits Japan to take up arms only in self-defense. Military intervention to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program could spark regional war.

North Korea views nuclear weapons not only as a deterrent against the U.S., but as a means to increase its stature in the world. At one time, it expressed a willingness, later retracted, to enter negotiations about its nuclear program. Still, it might be willing to freeze its plutonium program in exchange for economic incentives and normal relations with its neighbors and the U.S.

A Policy of Engagement

The countries of the region are pursuing a strategy to transform North Korea through engagement, not isolation. But the U.S. has not embraced this strategy. Negotiations in the current environment will be challenging and will require considerable commitment and patience from all parties. North Korea’s nuclear aspirations are tightly connected to the dynamics of the wider region. A peaceful resolution would dramatically reduce tensions and be an important step in checking militarization in Northeast Asia.

Unfortunately, the prospects for peaceful resolution are grim. The United States argues that North Korea has yet to respond to the U.S. proposal presented in June 2004. Yet North Korea refuses to come back to the negotiating table in the current environment. As the strongest party in this conflict, the U.S. can best advance its and the region’s interests by taking the initiative to get North Korea back to the table. Peace is made when people talk.