Weapons Sales to Taiwan: Driving an Arms Race

Pres. George W. Bush’s decision to sell additional weapons to Taiwan is likely to accelerate the ongoing arms race across the Taiwan Strait. Although the President showed commendable restraint by declining to sell the most advanced weapons on Taiwan’s shopping list (i.e. naval destroyers equipped with the Aegis radar), he approved the sale of almost everything else on the list, including 8 new submarines, 4 destroyers, and 12 anti-submarine aircraft.

China considers Taiwan to be a renegade province and seeks eventually to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. Thus, it opposes all U.S. weapons sales. Although China has stated its commitment to a peaceful path to unification, it has not renounced the right to use force. In recent years, it has deployed almost three hundred missiles across the Taiwan Strait, expanded its naval forces, and provocatively increased its military activities in the area.

Many in Taiwan view the weapons build-up across the Strait as a serious threat to their security. In seeking to buy additional weapons and to strengthen defense ties with the U.S., the democratically elected Taiwanese government is hoping to deter China from using force to advance its goals.

Most observers agree that China is far from having the capacity to invade Taiwan, and many observers believe that reports of a growing Chinese military threat to Taiwan are vastly overblown. However, Pentagon planners recommended the weapons sales. They believe that China is developing the capacity (1) to deploy a naval blockade around Taiwan and (2) to threaten any (including U.S. warships) that might come to Taiwan’s defense.

In Congress, too, momentum has been building to strengthen U.S. military ties with Taiwan and to sell increasingly sophisticated weapons systems. This has been fueled by deepening concerns about human rights in China. On April 4, as tensions were mounting over the detention of the U.S. spy plane crew, over eighty House members, from both sides of the aisle, sent Pres. Bush a letter urging him to sell Taiwan the Aegis-equipped destroyers.

FCNL opposed the weapons sales. In letters to Pres. Bush and the Hill, FCNL observed that selling more weapons to Taiwan would likely undermine security across the Strait and harm U.S.-China relations. FCNL warned that weapons sales could foreclose opportunities for improving relations between Taiwan and the mainland, stimulate a regional arms race, increase the threat of war (either accidental or intentional), and delay progress on a wide range of key issues of mutual concern in U.S.-China relations (e.g. arms control, disarmament, human rights, trade, development, environment, etc.). Beijing will view the sales as an indication that the U.S. is breaking its previous agreements and supporting Taiwan independence.