Ballistic Missile Defenses: No Path to Security

Pres. Bush, in his first major speech on global security, called for a new approach to U.S. nuclear weapons strategy. In the May 1 speech he said, "We must seek security based on more than the grim premise that we can destroy those who seek to destroy us. Deterrence can no longer be based solely on the threat of nuclear retaliation." He went on to say that the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty has become a relic of a by-gone era and that the new era demands a new approach that includes a ballistic missile defense system.

We at FCNL have long agreed with the idea that the current nuclear balance of terror is a morally bankrupt and dangerous policy. It should be abandoned. However, the President’s plan to build a ballistic missile shield is a step in the wrong direction. Contrary to the administration’s claim, this new nuclear force posture will undermine global security by stimulating the proliferation of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

Under the President’s plan, the U.S. would maintain its current overwhelming superiority in offensive nuclear weapons over all nations. Adding a ballistic missile shield to the U.S. repertoire would further imbalance the equation. Thus, whether or not the U.S. ultimately develops a functional missile shield, military planners at work now in Russia, China, and other potential adversaries would have to assume that a missile shield is a possibility and plan accordingly.

In the light of the history of arms races, what sorts of plans do we anticipate other nations making if the U.S. proceeds along the path that Pres. Bush has laid out?

Russia will modernize its forces rather than disarm. China will deploy dozens more intercontinental ballistic missiles (it only has about 20 now), with more warheads on each. India will respond to China’s build-up, and Pakistan will respond to India’s. Some nations may resume nuclear weapons tests. Current international restraints on nuclear and missile proliferation will wither. An accelerated Chinese nuclear weapons program may move Japan to remilitarize, and South Korea to further militarize.

International cooperation for arms control and disarmament will do far more to advance lasting peace and security, at much lower cost, than "smart" weapons and missile shields. However, because the U.S. has the most intimidating nuclear arsenal and has the greatest potential to expand its nuclear dominance, effective measures to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction and to accelerate their dismantling requires U.S. leadership. Many other governments would welcome this kind of U.S. leadership.

In such an international climate, it would be more difficult for "countries of concern" to persist in pursuing nuclear weapons development. Pres. Bush and Congress should take the first steps toward increasing global security by halting the missile shield program, ordering U.S. nuclear weapons off high alert, reducing the U.S. nuclear arsenal, and advancing bilateral and multilateral arms control.