What's New on the Peaceful Prevention of Deadly Conflict

U.S. intelligence officials announced today that they suspect the Assad regime has used chemical weapons against the people of Syria. Last August, President Obama said Syria’s use or transfer of chemical weapons would be a “red line” that would change the administration’s calculus on its approach to the conflict. The White House has continued to echo this sentiment—just today in a press conference with reporters, a White House official reiterated: "It is absolutely the case that the president's red line is the use of chemical weapons or the transfer of chemical weapons to terrorist groups,” but said more investigation is needed. Amid all the uncertainty and political posturing, one thing is still clear: U.S. military intervention in Syria is not the answer to saving lives and ending this conflict. Rather, U.S. military intervention would only exacerbate the conflict and lead to even larger-scale bloodshed. There is no place for “red lines” in effective diplomacy—at least not when what lies on the other side of the line is another U.S. war.

The Administration released its 2014 budget request last week. This budget request is used as a resource by Congress as the House and Senate draft their appropriation bills for 2014. The numbers are useful as a predictor for what will happen with the final 2014 appropriations bills, and they show what the Administration's priorities are.

The President’s request for international affairs--and atrocity prevention programs in particular--was pretty hopeful this year. All of our priority peacebuilding accounts were included by name. There was a risk that the Administration wouldn't request any money for the Complex Crises Fund, for example, but it was included. Unfortunately it was requested at the lowest level yet: $40 million. Last year the President requested it at $50 million, and it ultimately was funded at $40 million. A request of $40 million means the CCF could be funded at an even lower amount. We'll be lobbying over the next few months to ensure the CCF is funded at the full requested level.

A conversation about peace must be grounded in reality. Quaker activists bring together the prophetic and the pragmatic as they work to build peace by addressing the root causes of violent conflict.

In 2000, FCNL shared this newsletter with its network, advocating for an international code of conduct regulating the sale of small arms. 13 years later, the U.N. has finally adopted a global Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) to help prevent conventional weapons from fueling atrocities.

hanks in part to advocacy from FCNL’s network and others, Senator Coons has introduced a resolution focused on continued U.S. support for peace in Kenya. As Kenyans await verdicts on some important court cases – including one challenging the results of Kenya’s presidential election, due to be decided in a few days – Friends have emphasized that violence prevention and peacebuilding are as critical now as they were on Election Day.

After a long vote-counting process, Kenya’s Electoral Commission has announced results for races across the country, ranging from county governors to the new president of Kenya. But while victors have been declared, court cases to contest these results have also been filed – even including, said Friends in Kenya, “court cases on the court cases.”

Yesterday’s elections began with tragic violence on Kenya’s coast, but the remaining hours were marked with high voter turn-out and predominantly peaceful polling. As results are announced and the electoral process continues, those working to keep peace in their communities expect an ongoing effort for days and weeks to come.

After two years of advocacy on U.S.-Kenya policy here in Washington, DC – and years of peacebuilding work on the part of Kenyan Friends – it’s difficult to believe that Kenya’s national elections are just a few days away. Voters have been registered, two presidential debates have concluded, and many domestic and international poll observers have begun their missions.

A number of articles over the past couple of weeks, including this one from the New York Times, have painted dire pictures of the electoral situation. The lesser told story, however, seems to be that of the many Kenyans – including Kenyan Friends – who are successfully working to build peace and prevent violence in their communities.

Earlier this week, the White House released a videotaped message from President Obama to the people of Kenya. While the statement iterated U.S. support for a fair and peaceful election – and included some recommendations that Kenyans could just as easily encourage on the part of the United States – his ultimate emphasis was on the power Kenyan communities have to reject violence on March 4th and beyond.

Last week, 32 organizations joined FCNL in calling on President Obama to support African efforts toward peaceful, political solutions – rather than violent ones – as fears around militant extremism grow. The letter was written in response to recent reports that the administration may request an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) in Africa, a move which could both legitimize current military activities and enable vast expansion of the administration’s purview in the “war on terror.”

A number of disturbing articles over the past couple of weeks have, yet again, renewed FCNL’s concerns regarding the trend of U.S. policy on the African continent. The Wall Street Journal’s recent report on the topic even goes so far as to state that the administration may pursue a new Authorization for Use of Military Force in Africa – a resolution that could end up allowing for broad military operations in a number of African countries. The article notes that, depending on the language of the authorization, activities could range from increased partnership with local security forces to additional deployment of armed drones and U.S. special operations teams. Either way, a militarized approach seems likely to do more harm than good.

Syria has now been at war for twenty months. By some counts, over 40,000 people have died, hundreds of thousands have sought refuge in Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, and about 1.5 million people have been displaced within Syria.

Today it was reported that the Syrian government has fired Scud missiles at rebels, representing a significant escalation in the fighting. Following reports of Syrian government activity at chemical weapons sites earlier this month, President Obama and Secretary Clinton each publicly warned Bashar Assad not to use chemical weapons, implying that the U.S. may respond with military force. Secretary Clinton said “This is a red line for the United States…suffice it to say, we are certainly planning to take action if that eventuality were to occur.”

In the face of recent developments and some indications that a U.S. military response may be on the table, we at FCNL reaffirm our conviction that U.S. military intervention would further exacerbate the conflict.

“We do not want the U.S. government to come in and say, ‘These are our problems.’ Rather, we want them to know that there are grassroots leaders all over Kenya building peace – and that the U.S. can do more to work with and support them.”

Last night, at least 48 people were killed in an attack on Reketa village in southeastern Kenya. The violence is believed to have been undertaken in revenge, following ethnic clashes between two tribes that have escalated during the past few weeks. The 48 identified included 6 men, 11 children, and 31 women.

In the final days of this month’s Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) negotiations , many maintained hope that an agreement might be reached. Unfortunately, as of Friday, the $60 billion global arms trade will continue unregulated.

Though major loopholes remain, the final draft of the ATT considered by delegates includes a number of important standards. In addition to a requirement focused on ammunition regulations, it prohibits transfers to states intending to commit atrocities – as well as any transfers with “overriding risk” of enabling such acts. 90 countries joined a statement in support of the draft at the conference’s end, urging that it be taken to the U.N. General Assembly for approval.

Just a few moments after reading an article on the U.S. decision to cut a portion of its military aid to Rwanda – an important response to accusations that Rwanda’s government has supported armed militant groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo – I saw news of something far less encouraging: the U.S. decision to send surveillance drones to Kenya.