Experts: Iran Sanctions Can Pave Path for War

Below are quotes from U.S. national security officials and Iranian human rights activists who have spoken out about the dangers of indiscriminate sanctions against Iran. These experts have varying opinions on the effectiveness of some limited sanctions, however, they have all warned about the grave consequences of broad sanctions against Iran

Also see quotes by U.S. and Israeli officials against a military attack, and by officials and foreign policy experts in support of diplomacy with Iran.

36 Nat'l Security Experts on Costs of Iran Sanctions

A senior group of three dozen bipartisan national security experts—diplomats, military leaders and senators—developed a comprehensive study released in December 2012 weighing the costs of sanctions against Iran. While this report finds some benefits to some sanctions, it also highlights the costs of broad sanctions and warns that sanctions can have grave consequences. Signatories include former CIA director General Michael Hayden; former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Thomas Pickering; former Commander of CENTCOM General Anthony Zinni; and Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, the former Chief of Staff to Secretary Colin Powell, who has lobbied with FCNL in support of robust diplomacy. (See the list of signatories and the full report.)

Robert Pape, Security Expert and Professor of Political Science at University of Chicago

“Economic sanctions are often a prelude to using military force.”

[NIAC, 10/06/11]

Suzanne Maloney, Senior Fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institute

“Indeed, the United States cannot hope to bargain with a country whose economy it is trying to disrupt and destroy. As severe sanctions devastate Iran’s economy, Tehran will surely be encouraged to double down on its quest for the ultimate deterrent.”

[Foreign Affairs, 01/05/12]

“Even as the Obama administration has imposed the broadest and most robust multilateral restrictions on Iran in history, all of Tehran’s most disturbing policies, including its aggressive nuclear programme, proceed apace.”

“Over time, sanctions have been integrated within the regime’s ideological narrative. Like the war with Iraq in the 1908s, economic pressure represents another component of the international conspiracy to undermine the Islamic Revolution, a plot that has been foiled by Iran’s wise and righteous leaders, who have used sanctions to the country’s benefit by strengthening its indigenous capabilities and sovereignty.”

[Brookings, 11/11]

David Lektzian, Professor of Political Science at Texas Tech University and Mark Souva, Professor of Political Science at Florida State University

“When dealing with nondemocratic countries, states should avoid broad sanctions that impose high economic costs on the population at large because most people in the country are not part of the autocratic leader’s winning coalition, so the economic costs imposed on the larger population do not translate into political costs for the regime.”

[Journal of Conflict Resolution, 9/12/08]

Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council and Natasha Bahrami, foreign policy researcher

“The policymakers responsible for these measures either are ignorant of or are simply ignoring the empirical evidence: broad sanctions – total financial and trade embargoes – do not have a good track record of changing target countries’ policies or of pushing them toward democracy.”

[Boston Review, 02/06/12]

Iranian Pro-Democracy and Human Rights Activists

For more information on the devastating impact sanctions have had on Iranian civil society, read this paper from the International Civil Society Action Network on the devastating impact sanctions have on ordinary Iranians.

Shirin Ebadi, first Muslim woman to receive the Nobel Peace Prize

“We oppose military attack on Iran or economic sanctions because that’s to the detriment of the people."

[BBC, 3/4/10]

“Not withstanding the ten years of economic sanctions against Iraq. Saddam was still there, while many people died deprived of food and medication.”

[Think Progress, 4/22/11]

Mehdi Karroubi, reformist politician and former presidential candidate

“These sanctions have given an excuse to the Iranian government to suppress the opposition by blaming them for the unstable situation of the country.”

“Look at Cuba and North Korea. Have sanctions brought democracy to their people? They have just made them more isolated and given them the opportunity to crack down on their opposition without bothering themselves about the international attention.”

[Guardian, 08/11/10]

Mir Hossein Mousavi, Iranian political reformist

“Sanctions would not affect the government but would impose many hardships upon the people, who suffer enough as a result of the calamity of their insane rulers.”

[Washington Post, 10/01/09]

Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi

“Sanctions have targeted the most vulnerable social classes of Iran including workers and farmers...On the one hand, the government’s mishandling of the economy has resultedi n deep recession and rising inflation inside the country, which has crippled the people of Iran and resulted in the closure of numerous factories. On the other hand, we have sanctions which are strengthening the illegitimate government.”

[Guardian, 08/11/10]

Zahra Rahnavard, Iranian artist and politician

“Violence has many faces, and we identify economic sanctions as a vivid face of violence. Sanctions are a silent war against any nation that has risen up for democracy. Sanctions will exacerbate violence and crackdowns. Women and children are always the first group suffering from sanctions.”

[NIAC, 3/08/10]

Akbar Ganji, Iranian journalist and Cato Institute’s 2010 Milton Friedman Liberty Prize winner

“Economic sanctions would destroy the middle class (and)…the Green Movement…the more economic sanctions are applied against Iran, the more the government will control the economy.”

[Lobelog, 5/12/10]

U.S. Experts