Bruce Riedel on Iran's Capacity to Destabilize Afghanistan

Sep 3, 2009

Brookings Institution panel discussion, August 25, 2009

"If we see a situation in which the relationship between Iran and the United States is steadily deteriorating, and the Iranians - either correctly, or because of their own politics - come to the conclusion that the United States is trying to overthrow their regime, or subvert their regime, or prevent it from doing what it wants, one of the easiest ways for the Iranians to fight back is in Afghanistan. Iran has significant influence in the western part of the country and in the central Azeri region which is Shia. If it stirs up trouble in those parts of the country, which have been by and large relatively quiet for the last several years, that will introduce a new front. And as we've already discussed, we've got enough fronts in Afghanistan that we're dealing with now; we don't need another front.

"This particularly matters for the transatlantic allies, because many of them have their forces deployed in the western part of the country. The Italians, for example, who are deployed in Herat right now, feel that they're on the front line with Iran, and what they've done over the last several years is quietly make a deal that they will live and let live there. If that deal falls apart, then the Italians are going to be in a very serious and difficult situation."


Bruce Riedel is a Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, at the Brookings Institution Saban Center for Middle East Policy. A former CIA officer, Riedel focuses on political transition, terrorism and conflict resolution. He was a senior advisor to three U.S. presidents on Middle East and South Asian issues. At the request of President Obama he chaired an interagency review of policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan for the White House that was completed in March 2009.