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FCNL's Afghanistan Strategy
Jan 25, 2010
March 2010
Afghanistan: How to End a War
In his speech on December 1, 2009, President Obama said that he wanted to bring troops home from Afghanistan beginning in July 2011. As administration officials testified before Congress in the following weeks, it became clear that this date is not actually a withdrawal date but a goal. Even more so than events in Afghanistan, the political pressure that the administration feels and the perceived congressional support for a troop withdrawal will determine whether a withdrawal actually happens this year, next year, or even farther in the future.
With your help, we'll be working in the coming months to build enough opposition to a long-term, large-scale military presence in Afghanistan to set the United States on a course of de-escalation and withdrawal. We're working to win the congressional support needed to persuade the administration to change course in Afghanistan. Below you'll find some openings in Congress for showing that support. Our conversations with congressional offices lead us to conclude that Congress is not ready to block the funding required to continue the war, but we think Congress can be persuaded to push for positive changes in U.S. policy towards Afghanistan in the months ahead.
Hopeful Signs
Congress took a first constructive step last fall when it prohibited funding for permanent U.S. bases in Afghanistan. This measure didn't prevent escalation, but it did signal that Congress will not support the long-term occupation of Afghanistan. In light of recent statements by U.S. military officials pledging open-ended involvement in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the congressional ban on permanent bases is an important factor shaping U.S. policy.
President Obama's decision to escalate the fighting in Afghanistan has prompted calls to reconsider from long-standing opponents of a wider war, such as Sen. Russ Feingold (WI), Rep. Jim McGovern (MA), and Rep. Walter Jones (NC). It has also elicited expressions of opposition and skepticism from new quarters.
In response to the president's troop decision, Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Arlen Specter (PA) announced that he opposes sending more troops to Afghanistan because "I don't believe they are indispensable in our fight against al Qaeda." Specter stressed that to stabilize Afghanistan the United States. should "take the lead in brokering a rapprochement with India that would allow Pakistan to redeploy forces from the Indian border to Taliban and al Qaeda strongholds."
The ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Richard Lugar (IN), has warned that tactical objectives such as defeating Afghan insurgents "can become ends in themselves, disconnected from the broader strategic context or an accounting of finite resources" and said that before Congress votes more funds for war, "the administration must be prepared to answer many difficult questions about [the president's] strategy, as the American people study the potential consequences of the president's decision."
War Supplemental Bill: An Opportunity?
The White House is expected to ask Congress to approve $33 billion in supplemental funding for the war to cover the cost of sending 30,000 additional troops. This amount is on top of the war funding Congress approved as part of the Fiscal Year 2010 military spending bill. The administration will likely submit its formal request for to the $33 billion to Congress in February. Congress could act on the war supplemental funding bill as early as March or as late as July.
We at FCNL oppose more funding for war. At the same time, this legislation will encourage Congress to debate the U.S. role in Afghanistan and gives members of Congress an opportunity to place conditions on their support of additional funding.
Incremental Steps
In addition to opposing more funds for war, FCNL will be working in the months ahead to build congressional support for a U.S. policy to de-escalate and end the war in Afghanistan. As way opens we will be working to:
- Set Out a Clear Overall Strategy to De-escalate, End the War, and Stabilize Afghanistan: FCNL is working with other groups to introduce a bill in Congress that would require a complete withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Afghanistan by June 30, 2012, encourage a negotiated settlement between the Afghan government and insurgent groups, and promote stability through increased regional diplomacy and development aid. While Congress is not likely to pass the bill in this session, persuading members to cosponsor it will be an important way to build support for a new U.S. policy.
- Require the Pentagon to Prepare an Exit Strategy: President Obama's commitment to begin U.S. troop withdrawal in July 2011 provides an opening to influence what follows. Last year, 135 House members voted to require the Pentagon to prepare an exit strategy for Afghanistan. Persuading more members to support an exit strategy requirement could put the United States on course to a rapid withdrawal beginning in July 2011.
- Improve U.S.-Iran Relations: Iran can do much to help or hinder the United States in Afghanistan, as U.S. Afghanistan commander, Gen. David McChrystal, has acknowledged. If U.S.-Iran relations deteriorate over a failure to resolve concerns over Iran's nuclear program-a failure that could be caused in part by broad new economic sanctions on Iran mandated by Congress-the United States could be in for a much rougher ride in Afghanistan.
FCNL is lobbying Congress not to impose more economic sanctions on Iran to give the Obama administration's policy of diplomatic engagement a chance to resolve concerns over Iran's nuclear program and other issues. We are also urging members to recognize the importance of improving U.S.-Iran relations for stabilizing Afghanistan. - Cap U.S. Troop Levels in Afghanistan: Another avenue for de-escalating and ending the war is to stop the United States from sending even more troops to the country.
Rep. Barbara Lee (CA) has introduced legislation that would prohibit funding for additional U.S. troops in Afghanistan beyond the number present when the bill is signed into law. Congress will have at least one, and probably two, opportunities in the next ten months to take this step toward stopping any further build-up of the war. The provision could be attached to the upcoming supplemental funding bill for the Afghanistan war. It could also be added to the Fiscal Year 2011 military appropriations bill. Although FCNL opposes all military spending, FCNL we will be working to build support for a troop cap as part of our strategy to end the war. - Require a Status of Forces and Withdrawal Agreement: In Iraq, negotiating this agreement became the mechanism that forced both Iraq and the United States to recognize the necessity of a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces. Negotiating an agreement with Afghanistan would likely engage nationalist sentiment and lead to the same conclusion.
Legislation requiring the administration to negotiate a status of forces agreement with the Afghan government that includes a timetable for withdrawal is likely to be introduced in Congress in the next few months. As in the case of an exit strategy or a cap on U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan, FCNL will be lobbying to attach the requirement as an amendment either to a supplemental or annual funding bill.
FCNL's Outlook
Persistent work with Congress in the months ahead can build a bipartisan demand for change that will limit and then reverse the escalation of U.S. war-fighting in Afghanistan. We will be working to help build that demand, and we will be working on a broader regional front, because we are concerned that the Obama administration has embarked on a failing course, not only in Afghanistan, but in the wider region. We are urging the administration to reengage on the Israel-Palestine conflict, where its diplomacy has collapsed; redouble efforts to persuade Iran that the U.S. seeks a new relationship based on mutual interest and mutual respect; and reconsider the preponderant reliance on the aggressive use of military force in its Afghanistan strategy.
