Can War on Iran Be Prevented?

By Bridget Moix on 01/31/2012 @ 11:30 AM

Tags: Foreign Policy, Peaceful Prevention, , Iran, , Middle East

Reading the recent article in the New York Times Magazine, "Will Israel Attack Iran?", you might begin to think a war with Iran is inevitable and coming very soon. I know I've started losing sleep over the possibility. But no war is inevitable until it is underway, and there are real diplomatic solutions to the escalating crisis with Iran - if diplomats can muster the political courage to pursue them and space for real diplomacy isn't closed off entirely by the escalating press toward war by Congress and the media.

In a direct response to the NYTimes article, Gary Sick of the Tehran Bureau takes a much less "sensationalist" perspective, pointing out that "Bergman also overlooks the fact that Iran has almost certainly NOT made a decision to actually build a bomb and that we are very likely to know if they should make such a decision....Would Israel actually attack while these international inspectors are at work? No, they would need to give them warning, thereby giving Iran warning that something was coming. The IAEA presence is a trip wire that works both ways. It is an invaluable resource. Risking its loss would be not only foolhardy but self-destructive to Israel and everyone else."

Wait, you mean there are nuclear weapons inspectors in Iran?! Yes, though you'd hardly know that from the mainstream US media. And interestingly, Iran has just invited the IAEA inspectors to extend their mission, a move which many analysts suggests an opening for ratcheting down the rhetoric for war and reigniting diplomacy.

Secretary of Defense Panetta also explained on 60 minutes this past weekend, “the consensus is that, if they decided to do it, it would probably take them about a year to be able to produce a bomb and then possibly another one to two years in order to put it on a deliverable vehicle of some sort in order to deliver that weapon.” Wait, you mean they haven't even decided to pursue nuclear weapons yet?! Why, no. But military strikes would surely convince them to do so.

At a Hill briefing this week, 28-year veteran of the CIA Paul Pillar noted that a lot of the predictions circulating tend to worst-case Iranian behavior when talking about getting the bomb, but best-case Iranian behavior in the face of a military attack against them. In fact, his well-founded prediction, similar to other military experts, is that a military assault on Iran would quickly escalate into a devastating regional war, a new wave of anti-US sentiment across the Muslim world, offer a political gift to hardliners in Iran, lead to "incalculable economic consequences" for the world, fuel a nuclear arms race in the region, and guarantee generations of bad relations between the US and Iran.

So before accepting the inevitability of a war and giving up on diplomacy, as some in the media and Congress seem ready to do, why not consider - and pursue vigorously - the alternatives to such dangerous military action. While the next round of international negotiations (P5+1 talks in diplomatic lingo) is not expected to produce significant results, some elements of a negotiated solution to the crisis can be imagined. These could include an agreement to accept Iran's nuclear energy program while outlining clear technical no-gos to avoid weaponization. A more ambitious agenda would lay out a path that includes US-Iran cooperation on shared areas of concern, including Afghanistan, provides a security guarantee that the US and Israel will not attack in exchange for an end to Iran's support of violent disruption in the region, charts a course for a nuclear free weapons zone in the Middle East, and brings Iran back into the international community with a long-term goal of restored US-Iranian relations.

I sat in a briefing with Iran experts this week where these possibilities were being put on the table, examined, and debated. Unfortunately, the conclusion from all the speakers was that no one who needs to be weighing such options is right now. Instead, the increasing media hype and Congressional fervor for war is closing down the space for diplomatic options to be seriously considered and pursued.

That's unfortunate indeed because the risks of a war happening are increasing as the space for diplomacy is crowded out by fear and doomsday predictions. The best hope for preventing a war now amid such escalating conflict is an engaged citizenry insisting that war is not inevitable and calling on their policymakers to keep diplomacy on the table and pursue it vigorously, including direct, sustained, bilateral talks with Iran. FCNL's campaign to prevent war with Iran is underway - please join us!